Finnish Forest Sector Economic Outlook 2011–2012
Demand for forest products weakening
Production and exports in the Finnish forest industry grew at quicker pace in the first six months of 2011 than during the same period a year earlier, and profitability improved. However, after summer the situation has been affected by the heightened uncertainty over the world economy, especially the euro area.
Demand in the European markets is expected to pick up not earlier than in the second half of 2012. The forecast improvement is expected to keep the Finnish paper exports and production close to the 2011 level in 2012. However, European construction will remain sluggish for the whole year, and so Finnish sawnwood exports are forecast to fall slightly. The weakened end product markets will also be visible in roundwood demand and commercial fellings. Average 2012 prices for sawlogs and pulpwood will be slightly down year on year. The forecasts assume that a new financial and economic crisis will be averted. A recession would entail a downward revision of all the forecasts in this Economic Outlook.
This Economic Outlook is a translation of an abbreviated version of the Finnish original and is based on the information available in early October.