International workshop on

Koli (c) Metla/Erkki Oksanen

Development of Models and Forest Soil Surveys for Monitoring of Soil Carbon

April 5-8, 2006 at Koli, Finland

Combining soil and forest models with spatial data sets to assess climate impacts on European forest soils

Pete Smith1*, Jo Smith1, Martin Wattenbach1, Jeannette Meyer2, Marcus Lindner2, Sönke Zaehle3, Roland Hiederer4, Robert J.A. Jones4, Luca Montanarella4, Mark Rounsevell5, Isabelle Reginster5 & Susanna Kankaanpää6

1 School of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Cruickshank Building, St. Machar Drive, Aberdeen, AB24 3UU. UK
2 European Forest Institute, Torikatu 34, FIN-80100 Joensuu, Finland
3 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, P.O. Box 601203 D-14412 Potsdam Germany
4 Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Joint Research Centre, TP 262/280 Ispra (VA), I-21020, Italy
5 Department of Geography, Université catholique de Louvain, Place Pasteur, 3 B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium
6 Finnish Environment Institute (Metla), Mechelininkatu 34a, P.O. Box 140, FIN-00251 Helsinki, Finland

Forests are a major land use in Europe, and European forest soils contain about the same amount as carbon as is found in tree biomass. Changes in the size of the forest soil carbon pool could have significant impacts on the European carbon budget. We present the first assessment of future changes in European forest SOC stocks using a dedicated process-based soil organic carbon (SOC) model and state-of-the-art databases of driving variables. Soil carbon change was calculated for Europe using the Rothamsted Carbon model using climate data from four climate models, forced by four IPCC emissions scenarios (SRES). Changes in litter input to the soil due to forest management, projected changes in NPP, forest age-class structure, and changes in forest area were taken into account. Results are presented for mineral soil only. Under some climate scenarios carbon in forest soils will increase slightly (0.1 to 4.6 Pg) in Europe over the 21st Century, whilst for one scenario, forest SOC stocks are predicted to decrease by 0.3 Pg. Different trends are seen in different regions. Climate change will tend to speed decomposition, whereas increases in litter input due to increasing NPP and changing age-class structure will slow the loss of SOC. Increases in forest area could further enhance the total soil carbon stock of European forests. Whilst climate change will be a key driver of change in forest soil carbon, changes in age-class structure and land-use change are estimated to have greater effects.

   Päivitetty:   02.03.2006 / EKel Metla : Events   Palaute Metlan etusivulle
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