Silva Fennica : Special issues : Forestry scenario modelling in risk analysis and management
Forestry scenario modelling in risk analysis and management
Peer-reviewed papers selected from the meeting Forestry Scenario Modelling in Risk Analysis and Management, Joensuu, Finland, 5–13 August, 1999
Published as Silva Fennica 34(2). 107 pages.
Monitoring forest resources, growth and drain provides information on realised trends for forest management. In addition to trends, there are stochastic features of natural and socio-economic processes. Examples include occurrence of forest damages, effects of climate change, sudden changes in political conditions, technology or market. Forestry scenario analysis together with monitoring are the means for dynamic regulation and adaptation under changing conditions and uncertainty.
Forestry scenario models are tools for analysing the production possibilities in order to understand forest resource dynamics and its relationship between management practices and market demand/supply. Models, however, provide only estimates conditional to made assumptions. The uncertainty related to scenarios should be understood when interpreting the analysis results. In addition there are different methods to incorporate risks and the attitude of the decision maker toward risk in forest management planning.
Risk was the theme of the meeting “Forestry Scenario Modelling in Risk Analysis and Management” held in Joensuu, Finland, August 5–13, 1999. The meeting was organized by European Forest Institute and Finnish Forest Research Institute, together with the IUFRO working unit 4.02.07 Large-scale Forest Inventory and Scenario Modelling.
At the meeting, 15 papers were presented to 50 participants from 15 countries. The presentations covered different aspects of risk analysis and management from uncertainty of data and models to applications demonstrating the use of forestry scenario models. The discussion emphasised the needs to link ecological and economic models for decision support. Arguments were presented for simple and complex models. Simple models were popular when communicating the results for policy makers. Complex models with endogenous interactions were considered more suitable for research and teaching purposes.
In this issue of Silva Fennica a selection of papers is published. The submitted manuscripts have been refereed in accordance with the journal’s peer-review process. We hope that this collection of papers will give insights into modelling methods and evaluation of risks in forestry scenario modelling. Our intention is that research results published in this issue will prompt scientists to experiment with new methods of incorporating risk analysis and management in forestry scenarios.
We gratefully acknowledge the support provided by European Forest Institute, Finnish Forest Research Institute and the IUFRO Unit 4.02.07, Large-scale Forest Inventory and Scenario Modelling, for making the Joensuu workshop possible. We would like to thank the contributors to this special edition. The work provided by the reviewers of the manuscripts is highly appreciated.
Tuula Nuutinen, Risto Päivinen, meeting organizers
Eeva Korpilahti, Editor
METLA Editorial Office – TSal –
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