Silva Fennica : quarterly issues : 30(4) : sa304477.htm

Anne Toppinen, Susanna Laaksonen & Riitta Hänninen. 1996.

Dynamic forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price

Silva Fennica 30(4): 477–483

This study investigates the relationship between Finnish sulphate pulp export prices and international pulp inventories using the Johansen cointegration method. Long-run equilibrium is found to exist between pulp price and NORSCAN inventory for the study period, 1980–94. Granger causality is found to exist from inventory to price but not vice versa. A simple short-run forecasting model for the Finnish pulp export price is formed. In preliminary analysis, the explanatory power of model is found to be acceptable but only under stable market conditions.

Keywords
pulp, price, inventory, business cycles, cointegration

Addresses
Finnish Forest Research Institute, Helsinki Research Centre, Unioninkatu 40 A, FIN-00170 Helsinki, Finland. Fax +358 9 8570 5717, E-mail toppinen@metla.fi

Received 11 December 1995 Accepted 16 September 1996
ISSN 0037-5330

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