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Climforisk project methodology

Work in Climforisk is divided up into 7 actions:

Action 1: Project management and audit

Action 2: Data platform to represent forests and soil

Action 3: Building simulation framework

Action 4: Prediction of climate change induced effects on forests

Action 5: Internet-application for dissemination

Action 6: Forest susceptibility profile

Action 7: Dissemination and communication

Actions and Means Involved

Climforisk builds upon earlier research work carried out by many research projects at METLA (Finnish Forest Research Institute), UH (University of Helsinki), and elsewhere. Our project relies on extensive data collection efforts conducted by the EU under Forest Focus regulation, and continued forest monitoring projects under Life+ instrument (FutMon, Further Development and Implementation of an EU-level Forest Monitoring System), and by the European Soil Bureau in the work of compiling European soil map (the soil map of Finland was first one that is published). Our project also builds on the earlier work of national level authorities in national forest inventory of Finland (NFI) that has developed an efficient methodology to generalise forest inventory measurements on > 60 000 plots scattered all over Finland to any non-measured location in Finland with remote sensing observations.

Climforisk will develop a unique data-model system by combining and modifying existing tools and data that supports operational planning of adaptation measures to climate change at national scale. Adaptation measures can only be properly planned with firm understanding how various risks and benefits caused by climate change are distributed spatially.

In the first phase, measured and mapped information on soils and forests will be generalised to forest patch level over Finland with detailed remote sensing data. This phase sets the initial data for the predictions of future changes in forest resources (Action 2).

In the second phase, we will prepare modelling tools for project's purposes (Action 3). These models predict tree growth and carbon sequestration in terms of gross primary production (GPP) and net primary production (NPP), evapotranspiration, soil water status and proxies of trees' physiological state, which indicate tree vitality and susceptibility to environmental factors.

In the third phase, we will predict how target variables simulated with model tools are affected by the climate change (Action 4). In this stage, we will, for example, prepare maps how carbon sink can be expected to change in Finland, and where are the areas which are most likely to suffer or benefit from climate change induced changes in precipitation and temperature. Much of the effects that these climatic variables have on forest vegetation depend on type of soil type they reside. The merging of forest inventory data to recent soil map (Action 2) could benefit these assessments and it will tested in the project. Use of predictions of forest water balance together with other environmental variables will be tested as a potential means to predict vulnerability to drought damages related to selected pests/pathogens (Action 6).

Project disseminates its key results results through internet-application (Action 5). This application will present how climate change is likely to alter growth, GPP, and water balance, and how it threatens or benefits existing vegetation on detailed spatial resolution. As regards to biotic disturbances, web-application will present vulnerabilities on coarser scale due to inherent complexity of biotic population processes. Results will be actively disseminated to national stakeholders, and to relevant EU networks (Action 7).

Updated: 31.08.2011 /KBym  |  Photo: Erkki Oksanen, Metla, unless otherwise stated  |  Copyright Metla  |  Feedback