The economic impacts of global climate change on the southern forestry sector are assessed using a multi-period regional model of U.S. agriculture and forestry, FASOM. FASOM depicts the allocation of land over timber to competing forestry or agricultural activities in several regions of the U.S. Harvest decisions, management intensity and planting decisions are endogenous to the model. The model maximizes the discounted sum of consumer and producer surpluses, and evaluates economic impact primarily in terms of economic welfare.
Scenarios for the biological response of forest productivity to climate change are developed. A wide range of potential productivity responses is considered for U.S. forestry. Changes in timber supply induced by climate change result in economic impacts on producers and consumers in forest products markets. Public timber and Canadian trade are specifically addressed in several scenarios. The potential impacts of climate change are assessed regionally and nationally. The results are found to vary widely depending on scenario, indicating that more information is needed on forest sensitivity to climate change before refined economic impact estimates can be developed.
Key words: climate change, forestry, economic impact.
Correspondence: Diana M. Burton, Department of Forest Science, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-2135 USA
Telefax: +1-409-9456049
E-mail: diana@rsgis4.tamu.edu