Metla Project 3338
System for forecasting business cycles in forest sector
Duration: 2002-2004
Keywords: business cycles, econometrics , exports, forecasting, forest products , roundwood markets, time series
Objectives
The project continues the analysis of markets made previously in MESU (3174/2)-project and in Wood Wisdom projects (7010, 7028, 7077). The purpose of the study is to develop methods for analysing and forecasting Finnish forest products exports and roundwood markets at short-term. The project also produces theoretical background and analysing methods for The "Finnish Forest Sector Economic Outlook", published by Metla. In order to forecast timber trade, it is necessary also to link the end product markets to the Finnish timber market. For forecasting purposes information on the market structures are needed. This is why competition in export markets and roundwood markets are also studied. The main method applied in the study is time series ecometrics. The data consists of monthly and quarterly time series for forest products demand and prices in Finnish main export markets, for competitor countries' export prices and for Finnish roundwood trade. Also equilibrium models are used to analyse the impact of alternative market structures. In the research work, the project has connections with Domestic and foreign reserach organizations; University of Helsinki, Helsinki School of Economics and Business Administration, Pellervo Economic Research Institute, Center for Internationl Tarde in Forest Products (Cintrafor) and Forest Economics and Policy Warnell School of Forest Resources, University of Georgia.
Project leader:
Hänninen, Riitta
The Finnish Forest Research Institute,
Vantaa Unit,
PL 18, FI-01301 VANTAA, FINLAND
Phone: +358 29 532 2232
E-mail: riitta.hanninen@metla.fi
Other researchers:
Hetemäki, Lauri, VA (2002), Kallio, Maarit, VA (2002-04), Moilanen, Juhani (2002), Mutanen, Antti, JO (2003-04), Toppinen, Anne, JO (2002-04), Uusivuori, Jussi, VA (2004)
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Updated 12.06.2012
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