Metla Project 3174
System for forecasting business cycles in forest sector
Duration: 1996-2001
Keywords: business cycles, forest products export markets, roundwood markets, time series econometrics
Objectives
The export of forest industry products and roundwood markets follow international business cycles. A proper timing is an important thing when adjusting the activities of forest sector for these cycles. The aim of this research project is
- to publish the Finnish Forest Sector Economic Outlook
(FFSEO) annually in Finnish and English. FFSEO presents the next year's development in the Finnish forest sector. The Outlook gives an overview of the development of the entire forest sector and includes forecasts for the export volumes and prices of Finnish forest industry products, roundwood consumption and prices, the development of the employment situation, and investments in private forestry. The Outlook also contains several short articles on topical matters in the forest sector. - to create a system of short term forecasting for forest sector (MESU)
which supports and improves the quality of the market of FFSEO analysing and forecasting methods and serves the forecasting work made in Metla.
The MESU model
The objective is to create econometric forecasting models which help Metla to make forecasts and scenarios for the Finnish forest sector. In addition to providing forecasts, the model also gives information about the structural relationships and key variables in the Finnish forest sector. The use of Mesu-model together with the MELA-model allows Metla to make assessments in which the development of forest resources and the adjustments of roundwood markets are analyzed simultaneously.
The structure of the MESU-model
The MESU acronym comes from the Finnish term for forest planning: Metsän suunnittelu.
Project leader:
Hänninen, Riitta
The Finnish Forest Research Institute,
Vantaa Unit,
PL 18, FI-01301 VANTAA, FINLAND
Phone: +358 29 532 2232
E-mail: riitta.hanninen@metla.fi
Other researchers:
Aarnio, Jukka, HE (2000-01), Elovirta, Pertti, HE (2000-01), Haltia, Ville (2000-01), Hetemäki, Lauri, HE (2000), Kallio, Maarit, HE (2001), Laaksonen-Craig, Susanna (2000), Leppänen, Jussi, HE (2001), Mikkola, Eero, HE (2001), Napola, Jaakko, VA (2000), Ollonqvist, Pekka, JO (2000), Pohjola, Tapio (2001), Rekikoski, Jaana (2001), Sevola, Yrjö, HE (2000-01), Toppinen, Anne, JO (2000-01), Uotila, Esa, HE (2000-01), Viitala, Esa-Jussi, HE (2000-01)
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Updated 12.06.2012
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