Dear Netters: I belive that "natural" pine stands in the southern US will cover a very limited area in the year 2050. We might have about the same amount of bottomland hardwoods, more upland hardwoods, more pine plantations, and some mixed pine/hardwood stands. However, due to succession, population growth (houses built in timberland areas), fire suppression (to protect the houses and timberland), an increased demand for non-genetically engineered food crops (no unused farmland), increasing liability for prescribed burns, increasing real price for pine sawtimber (http://www.forestry.auburn.edu/coops/sfnmc/web/bet.html), and a lack of public concern regarding effective methods of hardwood control (see below), the area of natural pine stands will continue to decline. In just 32 years, the area in "natural" pines declined from 29,123,000 ha (in 1952) to 16,576,000 (in 1985). If this decline continues at the historical rate, there would only be 4,029,000 ha in 2017. By 2030, there might only be a few old stands remaining. Some managed stands of "natural" longleaf pine may exist in the year 2050 but this small amount may actually exceed "natural" slash pine land and could even exceed the amount of "natural" loblolly pine. David South (p.s. I realize the USFS estimate for "natural" pine stands in the year 2030 is 9,403,000 ha (Forest Resource Report #24). However, I bet the rate of succession in the future will be about the same as in the past). At 03:18 PM 4/7/98 EDT, you wrote: >I strongly oppose chipping and chemical treatment. If your goal is to restore >a native ecosystem structure, you don't want to lose the biomass and you don't >want to introduce synthetic chemicals into the system. > >The science of restoration is in its infancy. Truth is, we don't know if it's >possible to truly restore an ecosystem. Chipping and poisoning destroy >ecosystem values. Employing those approaches would be sort of like a doctor >using a sledgehammer to set a broken bone. > >David Orr > > David South School of Forestry Auburn University, AL 36849-5418 A member of the Forester's Chapter for ZPG http://www.forestry.auburn.edu/people/faculty//biology/south/zpg/forester.html dsouth@forestry.auburn.edu 334-844-1022 334-844-1084 (FAX) As always, views expressed here are my own (and I am not speaking on the behalf of others). I use only 100% post-consumer paper in my home printer. (discarded used office paper printed on one side) ========================================================================= The world population is expected to double by the year 2100. Therefore the annual demand for wood for energy (etc.) will increase and might double (to more than 7 billion m3/yr). To provide plantation wood for people in the future, support the planting of trees on pastureland. Set a goal of converting 8 million ha of pastureland/yr for the next 55 years. This would increase tree plantations to about 5% of the world's landbase. ========================================================================= Support Zero Population Growth for the United States http://www.igc.apc.org/zpg/index.html
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