Dear Jim:
I am not sure I understand your question regarding a "threshold." Are
you are wondering if burning 1.89 billion cubic meters of wood/year
has an effect on the (local) price of 1.44 billion cubic meters/year
of industrial roundwood (wood that is not exported)? Or are you
asking if buring 1.89 billion cubic meters/year has an effect on the
global price of 0.12 billion cubic meters that is exported each year?.
David South
Although millions of people might be affected, the impacts would be
localized. However, I suspect some threshold would be reached at which the
ripple effects from local crises would begin to have noticeable impacts on
other products (e.g., lumber and pulp) and on global markets. Above this
putative threshold, the existence of the fuelwood crisis in developing
countries alters the decisions and activities of forstry companies in the
industrial countries, and perhaps may ultimately alter the standard of
living of the inhabitants (I'm getting very speculative here).
My question for you is whether this scenario I have presented is valid, and
whether you think we have already reached this threshold.
Cheers -Jim (Stewart)
David South
School of Forestry
Auburn University
A member of the Forester's Chapter for ZPG
www.forestry.auburn.edu/people/faculty/biology/south/zpg/forester.html
As always, views expressed here are my own
(and I am not speaking on the behalf of others).
I use only 100% post-consumer paper in my home printer. (discarded used office
paper printed on one side)
====================================================================== The world
population is expected to double by the year 2100.
Therefore the annual demand for wood for energy (etc.)
will increase and might double (to more than 7 billion m3/yr). To provide
plantation wood for people in the future,
support the planting of trees on pastureland.
Set a goal of converting 8 million ha of pastureland/yr for the next 55 years.
This would increase tree plantations to about 5% of the world's landbase.
======================================================================
Support Zero Population Growth for the United States
http://www.igc.apc.org/zpg/index.html
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