Dear Clive and netters:
I actively (and financially) support Paul Erlich's views on Zero
Population Growth (I encourage other foresters to join the Forester's
Chapter of ZPG
www.forestry.auburn.edu/people/faculty/biology/south/zpg/forester.html
) However, Paul Erlich did not write "The Other Energy Crisis. It
was Erik Eckholm.
ECKHOLM,E.P. 1975: "The Other Energy Crisis: Firewood". Worldwatch
Paper 1. Worldwatch institute, Washington, D.C.
=============================
I am amazed at how little attention Eckholm's paper has been given by
both ecologists and foresters. For example, I just did a web search
on the title of this paper and came up with only four web pages (one
library, two from the publisher, and one from a paper I wrote on
nurseries). Apparently the idea of establishing tree plantations to
provide a renewable energy source in developing countries is not very
popular with either ecologists, foresters, or many organizations who
would save the world. Although we have the technology and money to
have 5% of the world's landbase in tree plantations by the year 2050,
I doubt we have the will or foresight to make it a reality. All one
has to do to see the need for fuelwood is to travel to developing
countries and see the amount of dung burned for fuel.
http://altavista.digital.com/cgi-bin/query?pg=q&what=web&kl=XX&q=%22th
e+other+en ergy+crisis%22
==============================
Back to the question of How Much Wood. I realize many on this list do
not have access to the web. For this reason, I have retyped a table
from my paper
http://www.forestry.auburn.edu/coops/sfnmc/class/feign.html
The tables show two possible ways to produce wood in the future. One
relies mostly on native stands for the wood needs of 10 billion. The
other relies mostly on tree plantations for the wood needs of 10
billion. I am amazed when I hear ecologists argue against tree
plantations (while saying nothing about population growth). It is as
though some have never considered the effects of 10 billion population
on the utilization of native stands for fuel, fiber, and timber.
Table 1. A possible wood production scenario for the world in the year
2050. The native stand scenario estimates 86% wood harvested from
managed native stands.
=============================================================
Land use MAI Forest World's
area landbase Volume harvested
landbase each year
=============================================================
m3/ha/yr billion percent billion m3
Protected
forests 0 0.28 2 0
Unmanaged
native 0 0 0 0 stands
Managed
native 2 3 23 6 stands
Plantations 10 0.13 1 1
Total 3.4 26 7
Pastures 28
=============================================================
Table 2. Another possible wood production scenario for the world in
the year 2050. The plantation scenario estimates 93% wood harvested
from tree plantations.
=============================================================
Land use MAI Forest World's
area landbase Volume harvested
landbase each year
=============================================================
m3/ha/yr billion percent billion m3
Protected
forests 0 0.65 5 0
Unmanaged
native 0 2.08 16 0 stands
Managed
native 2 0.25 2 0.5 stands
Plantations 10 0.65 5 6.5
Total 3.63 28 7
Pastures 22
=============================================================
______________________________ Reply Separator
_________________________________ Subject: Re: How Much Wood?
Author: "David; Clive" <cdavid@uwsp.edu> at tawa Date: 10/8/97
10:31 AM
Concerning fuelwood supply (J. Stewart posting):
>> a future potential forestry crisis (if it is not
> already here) is that of insufficient fuelwood supply. >
The crisis of fuelwood supply in the developing countries is not a
"future" one.
Rather, it has existed for at least 20 years. In the 70's, there was
a
publication highlighting it by Paul Erlich entitled "The other energy
crisis". Two issues of UNASYLVA [33(131) and 33(133)] in 1981 were
devoted entirely to wood energy and fuelwood.
Clive David
Associate Professor of Forestry
College of Natural Resources
University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point e-mail: cdavid@uwsp.edu tel.
715-346-4552
fax 715-346-3624
David South
School of Forestry
Auburn University
A member of the Forester's Chapter for ZPG
www.forestry.auburn.edu/people/faculty/biology/south/zpg/forester.html
As always, views expressed here are my own
(and I am not speaking on the behalf of others).
I use only 100% post-consumer paper in my home printer. (discarded
used office paper printed on one side)
======================================================================
The world population is expected to double by the year 2100.
Therefore the annual demand for wood for energy (etc.)
will increase and might double (to more than 7 billion m3/yr). To
provide plantation wood for people in the future,
support the planting of trees on pastureland.
Set a goal of converting 8 million ha of pastureland/yr for the next
55 years. This would increase tree plantations to about 5% of the
world's landbase.
======================================================================
Support Zero Population Growth for the United States
http://www.igc.apc.org/zpg/index.html
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