At 09:38 AM 10/7/97 -1100, David South wrote: > A problem with identifying the "economic" optimum planting stock is > taking early growth results and predicting volume (or value) at > harvest. A big stumbling block is a lack of growth models that have It seems to me that we have to identify the optimum planting stock in the context of an optimal overall silvicultural system, e.g. larger seedlings might be planted at lower densities and require a different thinning schedule, in addition to requiring a shorter rotation age, to produce max NPV. So we need to identify the total optimal silvicultural system, one part of which is the size and cost of seedlings. Obviously, optimal silviculture varies by site quality, and so too we would expect optimal seedling size to vary by site quality. Max NPV depends on expected prices. For a given hurdle rate, as price expectations change, optimal silviculture will change, and again, we should expect optimal seedling size to change. Conceptually the economics are easy, but the difficulty, as David points out, is projecting growth and yield. ...Sam ============ Samuel J. Radcliffe =============== Voice: 414-276-2062 George Banzhaf & Company Fax: 414-276-5206 225 East Michigan Street SamR@pitnet.net Milwaukee, WI 53202 ==========================================
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