> In reply to Mark Johnstons research on fire dynamics and modeling: > > I would expect prematurely that even when one accounts for stand > structure, fuel loading and weather conditions, the patterns exhibited > by fire in terms of frequency, intensity, rate of spread and size show a > fairly high degree of randomness; and that attempting to mimic such > randomness through timber harvesting however feasible might not be > reflecting the dyanamic appropriately. We developed a simulation model of fires in a boreal forest landscape to specifically examine the effect of randomness and some other factors on forest age class distribution. The model is simple in that it doesn't represent varying intensity, or site-specific details. Even so, it gave useful insights about variability as a function of landscape size and correlated fire disturbances over space and time. The research team included people from the Ontario Forest Research Institute and the University of Toronto. More details, the source for Ecological Modelling reprints, and the FLAP-X software are available at: http://www.interlog.com/~boychuk/flapx.htm We generated additional results with FLAP-X and discussed some management implications of the variability. These will appear in the Canadian Journal of Forest Research. I agree with John Vona that attempting to mimic natural randomness through timber harvesting can be difficult. In some cases, for example, the natural range of variation is so great that managers would prescribe a narrower target range. Some natural fire disturbances in the boreal forest are large and intense, e.g., 500 000 ha fires, significant areas burned to mineral soil or rock, and 5-30% of very large landscapes disturbed in one year. Few people would accept mimicking this with harvest regimes (e.g., Hunter, 1993, Biol. Conserv. 65: 115-120). When actual management in the boreal forest is so different from nature in this way, it might not make sense to attempt to mimic every fine nuance of the natural regime. Comments? Cheers, Dennis Boychuk Integra Research Inc Forest & Fire Management Research & Development (905) 683-5882, (905) 683-5031 Fax, http://www.interlog.com/~boychuk/
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