This population discussion has been fascinating and informative so far. We
have learned about the connections between forests, energy, climate,
population, and economic development, but what is lacking is any research or
theory on the current state of the human population or on what kinds of
policies or leverage points lead to the reduction of the human population.
If you will allow me to venture a little off the field of forestry, you may
find the following informative. It is taken from an article by Alene
Gelbard, Research Fellow at the Population Reference Bureau (PRB), 1875
Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 520, Washington DC, 20009-5728 USA.
Gelbard, Alene, 1995. Population growth, development and women: a
consensus?. _Population Issues, Proceedings of the ITEST Workshop_, eds.
Marianne Postiglione and Robert Brungs, St. Louis, Missouri: ITEST Faith
Science Press, October, 1995.
Key points
* This decade has been the fastest period of absolute increase in
population ever in the world. Steep global growth rates began after WWII
with global improvements in health, water, and sanitation for many peoples.
Growth rates peaked in the 1960's and are now declining worldwide, but
absolute growth is still increasing. The PRB estimates 50 years until
population stabilization.
* Fertility is defined as the average number of children a woman has in her
lifetime; it is the engine driving population growth. Replacement fertility
is 2.1 children/woman (where births = deaths). Globally, fertility is
*DECREASING*, experiencing significant declines even in developing countries
(China, Latin America, East Asia...), from 6 in 1960 down to 3.1 in 1990
(global average). However, the total number of women of child-bearing age
is INCREASING.
* Factors WHICH DIRECTLY AFFECT WOMEN affect their fertility:
- health care, to reduce infant mortality, reduces fertility
- available, cheap contraception reduces fertility
- education and literacy reduces fertility--EDUCATION IS THE MOST
STRONGLY ASSOCIATED INDICATOR OF FERTILITY.
- contraceptive use increases with an increase in women's education
- infant mortality decreases with an increase in women's education
- poverty and fertility are closely linked,
a cause and a consequence of each other
* Policies which lead to a reduction in fertility (regardless of culture):
- prenatal and post natal health care to reduce infant/child mortality
- the education and literacy of women, especially young women
- universal access to inexpensive family planning
- equality between men and women, empowerment of women
- sex education in schools, education of men regarding population pressures
- the involvement of men in forming and raising families
* Coercive policies do not work. Policies which lead to improvements in
people's lives do work, especially those where children are healthier and
better cared for. This implies improvements in living standards and social
justice.
Respectfully submitted,
Margaret Puckette
Environmental Policy Program
Oregon State University
Corvallis, Oregon USA
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