At 03:39 PM 5/7/97 +0000, you wrote: >Dear FOREST readers > >David South posted a question for me on where I would prefer to have how >much plantations established to meet future wood demands. It would ofcourse >be impossible for me to give exact figures so I will not try do do so. David >was probably trying to trick me, but is is apparent that he wants more >plantations. ---clip---- >Thor Hjarsen >Centre for Tropical Biodiversity >Zoological Museum, University of Copenhagen >Universitetsparken 15, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark >Fax: + 45 35 32 10 10 >E-mail: THjarsen@zmuc.ku.dk Dear Thor: You are right, I was trying to trick you into reading my paper entitled How Can We Feign Sustainability With An Increasing Population? http://www.forestry.auburn.edu/coops/sfnmc/class/feign.html Apparently, the trick did not work. My reasons for supporting tree plantations are clearly stated in the abstract. ============================================================================ ======= ABSTRACT Attitudes of human societies towards tree plantations can be a critical factor in determining the source of wood supply in the future. Since human populations will expand substantially in the southern hemisphere, considerable increases in the demands on native forests will occur. Currently, only a limited amount of tree plantations have been established specifically to provide firewood in developing countries. This may be due in part to a world society that has evolved a general preference for pastures but aversion to tree plantations. In total, pastureland and tree plantations amount to 26% and 1% of the world's landbase, respectively. Nevertheless, our actions today will determine if children in the future collect firewood from natural stands or from tree plantations. It is estimated that a substantial afforestation program could increase the amount of tree plantations to equal 5% of the world's landbase by the year 2050. Ten billion dollars (U.S.) is a rough estimate of the annual costs for such a program (assuming no overhead or administrative costs). Most of the wood needs could come from these plantations. However, if the world's society wants most wood in 2050 to come from natural stands (>80%), then tree plantations can be limited to just 1% of the landbase. Keywords: population growth, carrying capacity, plantations, firewood David South School of Forestry Auburn University, AL 36849-5418 dsouth@forestry.auburn.edu 334-844-1022 334-844-1084 (FAX) As always, views expressed here are my own (and I am not speaking on the behalf of others). I use only 100% post-consumer paper in my home printer. (discarded used office paper printed on one side) http://www.forestry.auburn.edu/coops/sfnmc/sfnmc.html ========================================================================= The world population is expected to double by the year 2100. Therefore the annual demand for wood for energy (etc.) will increase and might double (to more than 7 billion m3/yr). To provide plantation wood for people in the future, support the planting of trees on pastureland. Set a goal of converting 8 million ha of pastureland/yr for the next 55 years. This would increase tree plantations to about 5% of the world's landbase. ========================================================================= Support Zero Population Growth for the United States http://www.igc.apc.org/zpg/index.html
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