Dear Thor:
I think your comment about where plantations are placed is great! So lets
think about where
we should establish plantations (both country wise and land type wise).
How much plantations should the US have in the year 2050?
How many more plantations should Denmark have in the year 2050?
Is it OK to establish plantations on pastureland?
I have a paper on the internet that shows where I think we should have
plantations (and how many plantations)
in the year. The paper can be found at this URL.
http://www.forestry.auburn.edu/coops/sfnmc/class/feign.html
(Thor, I can send you a copy if you are not on the WWW)
I think by the year 2050, the annual consumption for wood will be at least 7
billion m3/year!
This amount assumes an average consumption rate of 0.7 m3/person/yr. I
assume some of this wood
will be used for energy in both developing and developed countries. For
example, the USA used
87,450,990 m3 of fuelwood in 1994; Denmark used 485,000 m3 of fuelwood in 1994;
Finland used about 4,101,000 m3; and Nigeria used 90,820,000 m3.
Finland and Nigeria, respectively, currently use about 0.8 and 0.9
m3/person/year for energy.
I believe wood accounts for about 14% of the energy used in Finland.
Some of us foresters view this as more acceptable than burning a higher
percentage of coal or oil.
Now, for a population of 10 billion people, here is where I would like to
see plantations located by the year 2050.
Million ha
United States 96
Canada 12
Europe 84
Japan 14
Africa 105
China 95
Asia (other) 183
Latin America 40
Total world 629
Except for Japan, I believe all of these plantations could be located on
current pastureland (see my proposal at bottom of e-mail)
Now, I believe 629 million ha of plantations could produce 6.3 billion
m3/year (on a sustained basis). That would leave
about 0.7 billion m3/year from other timberlands.
If we reduce the amount of plantations (which is occurring in some countries
like Finland due to European's objections to plantations), the wood that is
harvested will increasingly come from natural stands. If we only have 128
million ha of plantations in the year 2050, I say about 85% of the wood will
come from natural stands. In other words, we will be harvesting more wood
from natural stands in the future if plantations are not part of the
"holistic" and "far-seeing" environmental development policy.
More details regarding my estimates can be obtained from my paper.
Now Thor, I challenge to you is tell us how many ha of plantations we should
have in the year 2050 and
where would you like to see the plantations?
THEREFORE, PLEASE FILL OUT YOUR VERSION OF THE FOLLOWING TABLE FOR THE YEAR
2050.
Million ha
United States ?
Canada ?
Europe ?
Japan ?
Africa ?
China ?
Asia (other) ?
Latin America ?
Total world ?
>"...Plantations have their place, but that place has to be created by a
just, holistic and
>far-seeing environmental and sustainable development policy."
Ok, if plantations have their place, can that place be on pastureland or
does the production
of red-meat make pastureland a higher land use priority than the production
of plantation wood for energy and fiber?
Looking forward to your reply
David South
========================
p.s.
If I am correct, many of the woodlands in Denmark were originally planted or
seeded by man. I assume Denmark currently has about 9% of its landbase in
"plantations" and about 2% is in "natural" stands. (Sorry, but I use the
definition of "plantation" as a forest crop or stand raised artificially,
either by sowing or planting). I realize that others prefer not to call
these plantations and would rather lump "plantations" into the term
"exploitable forest." The term "exploitable forest" makes an accounting of
the true area in "plantations" difficult.
I would like to add that currently, people in Denmark spend about
$211/person on importing wood and wood products from other countries. Over
a ten year period, only 1,000 ha/year of plantations were established on
farmland in Denmark. Denmark has about 6% of the landbase in pastureland.
========================
David South
School of Forestry
Auburn University, AL 36849-5418
dsouth@forestry.auburn.edu
334-844-1022
334-844-1084 (FAX)
As always, views expressed here are my own
(and I am not speaking on the behalf of others).
http://www.forestry.auburn.edu/coops/sfnmc/sfnmc.html
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The world population is expected to double by the year 2100.
Therefore the annual demand for wood for energy (etc.)
will increase and might double (to more than 7 billion m3/yr).
To provide plantation wood for people in the future,
support the planting of trees on pastureland.
Set a goal of converting 8 million ha of pastureland/yr for the next 55 years.
This would increase tree plantations to about 5% of the world's landbase.
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