Forest list archive: msg00097

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Re: Rate of return in forestry



Previous messages mentioned that the US Forest Service used a 4% rate
of return for forest planning.  I recall an story from graduate
school about how the USFS got the 4% figure past the Office of Management
and Budget (OMB).  I share it here hoping that someone can confirm
or officially deny the story.

In the late 1970's, US government agencies were supposed to evaluate
development projects with a B/C analyses based on a 7.0% (maybe it
was 7.5%) rate of return.  The 7.0% was supposed to represent the return
on the the average dollar diverted from the private sector to the public
sector.

A USFS economist is supposed to have argued that the USFS wasn't
asking for the *average* tax dollar, but rather the *marginal* tax
dollar, and that the marginal tax dollar would only earn 4% over the
long haul.  His argument was appearantly so clever, compelling and
irrefutable, that OMB gave the USFS permission to use the 4% rate for
forest planning, on the condition that it wouldn't tell any other
federal agencies.

Anyone know whether this is true?
private sector to the public sector
Mark Rasmussen
Timber Data Company
541-485-6239




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