Dear Netters: I want to add my two cents on the returns from plantation forestry. I probably should not do so here since I am not an economist, but the near future economic returns from plantations may not be the same as past returns. In general, here in the southern US, the price of pulpwood has not changed much since 1950 (in terms of constant dollars). However, real increases could occur soon due to an increasing demand for wood combined with a less accessible supply. I was recently impressed by a paper entitled "The timber supply situation in the southeast: implications for intensive management" by Robert C. Abt, Fredericek W. Cubbage, and Gerardo Pacheco (in proceedings of 23rd Southern Forest Tree Improvement Conference; 1995; p. 1-6). They show the real price of pulpwood not changing much from 1977 to 1988, but then increasing from 1988 to 1994 (especially in places like Florida and Georgia). However, if we do not increase the productivity of our pine stands, they predict a 160% higher conifer price (in constant dollars) in the year 2010 (just 14 years away). This means the returns we can obtain by investing in plantations today might be quite different from historical ones. I am generally not an alarmist. For example, I still have a cover of a November 25, 1972 "Business Week" with a heading of "The timber industry: a struggle for more wood." Predicted shortages in wood supply have traditionally been made by U.S. foresters with few predictions being realized. However, the world population will likely increase by one billion people in the next 11 years and people in the northern hemisphere will likely have more disposable income per capita. These factors make me urge others to establish tree plantations on old pastureland NOW! (This is what NZ farmers are currently doing). p.s. I think it is ironic that the real price (constant dollars) of most NONRENEWABLE resources has been going down since the turn of the century. However, in figure A-8 of Julian Simon's book "The Ultimate Resource," the real price of a RENEWABLE resource (sawlogs) has been steadily increasing! David South School of Forestry Auburn University, AL 36849-5418 USA dsouth@forestry.auburn.edu 334-844-1022 334-844-1084 (FAX) http://www.forestry.auburn.edu/coops/sfnmc/sfnmc.html ========================================================================= The world population is expected to double by the year 2100. Therefore the annual demand for wood for energy (etc.) will increase and might double (to more than 7 billion m3/yr). To provide plantation wood for people in the future, support the planting of trees on pastureland. Set a goal of converting 8 million ha of pastureland/yr for the next 55 years. This would increase tree plantations to about 5% of the world's landbase. =========================================================================
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