Re: 5% of the World in Plantations?

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• Subject: Re: 5% of the World in Plantations?
• From: Sam Radcliffe <samr@GBCMKE.SOL.NET>
• Date: Fri, 14 Jul 1995 14:05:43 +0000
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\
\I PROPOSE WE PLANT TREES ON PASTURELAND SO THAT BY THE YEAR 2050, 5% OF THE
\WORLD'S LANDBASE WILL BE IN PLANTATIONS.
\
\YEAR
\1990 -  130 MILLION HA OF TREE PLANTATIONS  (30%? on post-agricultural land)
\2020 -  260 MILLION HA OF TREE PLANTATIONS  (50%+ on old pastureland)
\2030 -  390 MILLION HA OF TREE PLANTATIONS  (66%+ on old pastureland)
\2040 -  520 MILLION HA OF TREE PLANTATIONS  (75%+ on old pastureland)
\2050 -  650 MILLION HA OF TREE PLANTATIONS  (80%+ on old pastureland)
\
\

David,

Just to put your plan in perspective, consider the following
spreadsheet, with the assumption that the US share of world
plantations would be the same in 2050 as today (this is an
assumption of convenience, perhaps US share should be higher
since its pasture/plantation ratio is so high now):

1990 World Plantations     130.000 mm ha        321.230 mm ac
1990 U.S. Plantations       13.400 mm ha         33.111 mm ac
U.S. Share                   10.31%                    10.31%

2050 World Plantations      650.000 mm ha      1,606.150 mm ac
2050 U.S. Plantations        67.000 mm ha        165.557 mm ac

U.S. Net Increase 1995-2050  53.600 mm ha        132.446 mm ac
Conversion Rate/Year          0.975 mm ha          2.408 mm ac

Cost of Planting            $432.25 $/ha         $175.00 $/ac
Total Annual Cost      $421,247,273

Discount Rate                 10.00%
Inflation Rate                 3.50%
Real Discount Rate             6.28%

Net Present Cost     $6,472,218,200

FY 95 CRP Budget             $1,736,000,000
FY 95 Forest Service Budget  $3,166,000,000
FY 95 FIP Budget                $12,326,000 (NRCS)
FY 95 BLM Budget             $1,162,000,000
FY 95 NRCS Budget (incl FIP) $1,022,000,000

Total                        $7,086,000,000

Annual Cost of Conversion Plan as Percent of Total = 5.9%


Obviously, other govt agencies, including state agencies, and
private sector budgets could have been tossed into the mix,
bringing this percentage even lower. Clearly, your plan is not
wildly out of line with current natural resource budgets.


            ...Sam
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Sam Radcliffe                          George Banzhaf & Company
Voice: (414) 276-2062                  225 E. Michigan Street
Fax:   (414) 276-5206                  Milwaukee, WI 53202

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