Dear newsgroup members:
David South recently sent out an interesting post in regard to
future wood demands. I believe the most important part he was trying to
stress is that wood demand will be 75% greater in 2050 than current
levels. It strikes me that Dr. South then questions why today's
foresters are not planting extensive forests (I assume plantations) for
the expected demand of 2050.
Despite Dr. South's normal brilliance in these matters (I'm not just
saying that since he's down the hall and could show up at my defense),
I'm afraid I'll have to disagree with his reasoning and conclusion.
First of all, estimating future demand based on current trends can be
extremely risky. Current rates are not absolute; they change with time.
In terms of future wood needs, I see several potential and realistic
developments in the future:
1) Given that Americans only recycle less than a quarter of the
potential amount of wood and/or paper, a drastic increase in recycling
levels (say up to 50%) would have important effects in the amount of
virgin wood needed per time period.
2) The efficiency rate of harvesting and processing is increasing. That
is, less wood is being left on the site or mill floor. Changes in
forestry technology should not be ignored.
3) The fuel wood crisis in developing countries is dependent on the
economies of those countries. As the world economy becomes more and more
market-directed (versus government-directed), I believe that the fuelwood
stocks will be better managed or even replaced. As another post on this
subject pointed out, solar power could be a major factor. Other forms,
such as wind, tidal, or even nuclear, could increase the standard of
living in these countries. Of course, if economical cold fusion is figured
out, all bets (and predictions are off).
4) Keeping with the subject of developing countries, a very important
concept to take into account is economically-induced demographic
transition. In common words, the birth rate declines with increasing
family wealth. As developing countries become wealthier, their birth
rates will decline. In Europe and America, if one takes into account
immigration and welfare-encouraged large families, I'm sure that the
majority of the populations have very low or negative population growth.
In short, the middle class has a self-imposed low population increase.
If other members of the newgroup have additions to (or criticisms) of my
list, I'm sure the newsgroup will benefit from further discussion.
Thank you for your time.
Doug Marshall
marshall@forestry.auburn.edu
On Fri, 21 Apr 1995, David South wrote:
> I agree, it seems very curious that so little debate is focused on demand.
> How much DEMAND should we be planning and planting for the year 2050?
>
> Throughout the world, civilization has converted forested land into
> farmland, pasture land (for cows, sheep and goats), roads, homesites, and
> cities. Trees harvested from natural stands have been used for firewood and
> for making charcoal, lumber, furniture, and paper. When wood is not in
> short supply, many regions of the world consume wood at a rate of about 1
> cubic meter/perso
> If we currently consume a world total of 4 billion cubic meters/year for 5.5
> billion people, then the current consumption rate is about 0.7 cubic
> meters/person/year. Now most wood consumed in the world is for firewood.
> If we accept that a energy supplied as wood is more sustainable in the
> long-term, and more ecologically/environmentally sound than energy supplied
> from coal, gas, oil, or uranium, then we should expect the wood consumption
> for firewood to increase in relation to the population. By 2020, it has
> been predicted that at least 2.4 billion cubic meters/year of firewood will
> be consumed. I also assume the per capita consumption of wood by wealthy
> nations will at least remain the same as today.
>
> It is my understanding that we are currently adding a billion people every
> 11 years. At this rate, we will likely have 10 billion people by 2050.
> This likely would mean a wood DEMAND in 2050 might be 7 billion cubic
> meters/year which is about 75% greater than today.
>
> What amazes me is that many foresters and citizens in the United States
> propose that we manage timberlands for past DEMAND levels (as though the
> world's population is going to decrease to level of about 1 billion people
> by the year 2050). Is it just me, or does it seem like many North American
> foresters and citizens want ALL our wood needs to come from natural stands?
>
> On the other hand, some foresters and citizens are planting trees now for
> future generations. They assume the world's increasing population pressure
> will place greater DEMANDs on our land resources. Since in some counties,
> trees are harvested on a 55 to 80 year rotation, they are planting trees
> today for an expected population level of 10 billion. For example, I
> believe that Sweden has about 11% of its landbase in tree plantations (the
> most for any country!). Even so, I think it is a pretty country with about
> 53% of the land in natural forests. In comparison, the world has only about
> 1% of the land in tree plantations and about 27% of the land remaining in
> natural forests.
>
> I could say more, but I am not sure there are many on the net who are very
> concerned with either addressing the population problem, or addressing the
> question about how to best manage our lands to supply the wood DEMANDS of
> our grandchildren. Thank goodness for countries like Sweden who are
> planting trees today to help supply some of the wood DEMAND of 10 billion
> people.
>
>
> P.S. (I would like to point out that in 1931, some individuals in the U.S.
> believed
> the population growth in the U.S. would become stationary by 1950 or 1960 at
> about
> 145 million. Unfortunately, they were wrong. Currently it is about
> 262,296,564. I hope the current projection of 390 million by the year 2050
> is not an underestimate.)
>
>
> David South
> School of Forestry
> Auburn University, AL 36849-5418
>
> dsouth@forestry.auburn.edu
>
> 334-844-1022
> 334-844-1084 (FAX)
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