>FROM Lars Laestadius
>
>>I'm curious about the fact that so much of this debate is focused on the
>>producer side. Discussing the demand seems more appropriate.
>>
>
>RESPONSE FROM DAVID SOUTH
>
>I agree, it seems very curious that so little debate is focused on demand.
>How much DEMAND should we be planning and planting for the year 2050?
>
COMMENT from Kjell Pernestal
I think David makes a very good comment on future demand. Allthough David
makes a projection on increasing population there are a few other parameters
which have to be considered.
Todays energy supply in the industrilized countries is very much dependent
on fossile fuels. If we want to make countermessures to the greenhouse
effect , one of possible energy supply is the use of wood. I have seen
figures saying that by assuming a 1% conversion efficincy of solar energy in
forest productivity Sweden can manage its own energy supply by using 15% of
the area, Germany 90% and the Netherlands some 300% (!!). I have not checked
these figures myself but the figure for Sweden is OK.
Has someone made a global calculation on this assumption and included a
projection on increasing living standard for developing countries?
Allthough there are alternative energy supplies (and conservetion), the
demand of wood is likly to increase faster than Davids prognosis unless we
can invent something. To me it looks necessary to have a strategic
discussion on *how to use* the forest as a resource - firewood, construction
materials, resource for production of liquid fuels, etc etc.
Kjell Pernestal /\
Dept Physics Dept Forest Survey //\\
GPO 530 //\\
S-751 21 UPPSALA S-901 83 UMEA ///\\\
Sweden Sweden ///\\\
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