FROM Lars Laestadius >I'm curious about the fact that so much of this debate is focused on the >producer side. Discussing the demand seems more appropriate. > RESPONSE FROM DAVID SOUTH I agree, it seems very curious that so little debate is focused on demand. How much DEMAND should we be planning and planting for the year 2050? Throughout the world, civilization has converted forested land into farmland, pasture land (for cows, sheep and goats), roads, homesites, and cities. Trees harvested from natural stands have been used for firewood and for making charcoal, lumber, furniture, and paper. When wood is not in short supply, many regions of the world consume wood at a rate of about 1 cubic meter/person/year. Poor regions where wood is in short supply may consume only 0.3 cubic meters/person/year. Wealthy regions may consume 3 cubic meters/person/year. If we currently consume a world total of 4 billion cubic meters/year for 5.5 billion people, then the current consumption rate is about 0.7 cubic meters/person/year. Now most wood consumed in the world is for firewood. If we accept that a energy supplied as wood is more sustainable in the long-term, and more ecologically/environmentally sound than energy supplied from coal, gas, oil, or uranium, then we should expect the wood consumption for firewood to increase in relation to the population. By 2020, it has been predicted that at least 2.4 billion cubic meters/year of firewood will be consumed. I also assume the per capita consumption of wood by wealthy nations will at least remain the same as today. It is my understanding that we are currently adding a billion people every 11 years. At this rate, we will likely have 10 billion people by 2050. This likely would mean a wood DEMAND in 2050 might be 7 billion cubic meters/year which is about 75% greater than today. What amazes me is that many foresters and citizens in the United States propose that we manage timberlands for past DEMAND levels (as though the world's population is going to decrease to level of about 1 billion people by the year 2050). Is it just me, or does it seem like many North American foresters and citizens want ALL our wood needs to come from natural stands? On the other hand, some foresters and citizens are planting trees now for future generations. They assume the world's increasing population pressure will place greater DEMANDs on our land resources. Since in some counties, trees are harvested on a 55 to 80 year rotation, they are planting trees today for an expected population level of 10 billion. For example, I believe that Sweden has about 11% of its landbase in tree plantations (the most for any country!). Even so, I think it is a pretty country with about 53% of the land in natural forests. In comparison, the world has only about 1% of the land in tree plantations and about 27% of the land remaining in natural forests. I could say more, but I am not sure there are many on the net who are very concerned with either addressing the population problem, or addressing the question about how to best manage our lands to supply the wood DEMANDS of our grandchildren. Thank goodness for countries like Sweden who are planting trees today to help supply some of the wood DEMAND of 10 billion people. P.S. (I would like to point out that in 1931, some individuals in the U.S. believed the population growth in the U.S. would become stationary by 1950 or 1960 at about 145 million. Unfortunately, they were wrong. Currently it is about 262,296,564. I hope the current projection of 390 million by the year 2050 is not an underestimate.) David South School of Forestry Auburn University, AL 36849-5418 dsouth@forestry.auburn.edu 334-844-1022 334-844-1084 (FAX)
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