Forest list archive: msg00050

[Prev][Next][Index][Thread]

Three island word problem



Here is a word problem for netters:

There are three islands in the ocean that are identical.  Each is 12
hectares in size and each is covered with 10 hectares of woods (the beach
covers about 1 hectare and there is 1 hectare of high ground).  Each island
is inhabited initially by a couple who can obtain all the food they need
from the ocean.  However, they need wood for cooking.  Firewood is consumed
at a rate of 1 cubic meter/person/year.  The woods produce about 24 cubic
meters (CM) of wood/yr and this wood can be collected on a sustainable basis
without reducing the growing stock.   However, the trees are very small and
therefore the standing volume of the forest never exceeds 2.4 cubic
meters/ha.  To clarify, the 10 hectare forest has 24 CM of wood on January
1st and during the year, 24 CM of firewood (dead branches etc) can be
collected.  On December 31, the standing volume of the forest is still 24
CM.  If the firewood is not collected, the branches fall off the trees and
either decay or are occasionally washed off the island.  However, firewood
can be collected and stored indefinitely (in a dry place) without wood
decay.  If  harvesting reduces the standing volume to less than 24 CM, the
firewood production will only equal the standing volume on January 1st (for
ease of calculation).   

The couples all have the same major objectives.  To keep cooking food and to
keep at least half of the woods in a natural state.  Although firewood can
be collected from the natural woods, the objective is to not reduce the
standing volume on the 5 hectare preserve.  
  
For years, everything goes well until one tragic day when they learn that
the population is going to increase by 2 persons/year (apparently, the
population on nearby developed islands did not practice population control
and has exceeded their carrying capacity).  Starting on January 1st in all
future years,  2 additional people will inhabit each island.

The three couples have 1 year to prepare for the invasion.  However, they
decide to manage their woods in different ways.    The couple on island A,
decides to collect all the firewood from the woods (24 CM ) and stores the
extra  firewood for future needs.  On January 1st (year 1), the couple has
22 CM of firewood in storage.

The couple on island B, decides to cut down 5 hectares of  wood and stores
this  firewood.  However, they establish a 5 hectare  willow  plantation.
This willow plantation is harvested each year and will produce 10 cubic
meters of firewood/ha/yr.  On January 1st (year 1), the couple on island B
has 72 CM of firewood in storage (50 from the plantation,  12 from cutting
down 5 hectares of wood, and 12 from collecting firewood from the preserve;
-2 CM from cooking food).  They plan on continuing to establish 5 hectares
of willow plantation each year (and adding kelp for fertilizer to maintain
production level at 10 CM/ha/yr).

The couple on island C does the same as the couple on island B.  On January
1st, (year 1) they also have 72  CM of stored firewood.  However, they place
a requirement on each  new couple.  Each new couple must conduct research to
increase the volume production from the willow plantation.  By determining
how to increase volume production, they help become part of the solution
instead of part of the problem.  Amazingly, each new couple figures out a
way to increase willow production by 0.2 CM/ha/yr.  For example, the first
willow crop was 50 CM, the second was 51 CM, the third was 52 CM, etc.


None of the islands can sustain a population growth of 2 persons/year.
Therefore, the real problem for all three islands is population growth.
Limited resources can not sustain unlimited population growth.  With a 5 ha
preserve, Island A can only sustain a population of 24 people;  Island B can
sustain 62 people; Island C can sustain about 122 people.  However, the
management regimes have vastly different effects on protecting the 5 ha
"reserve." 
 
By storing firewood collected from the natural wood, the wood supply runs
out during year 24.  On Jan 1, year 25, there are 52 people on the island
and the entire preserve is harvested for wood.  

By growing willow in a  plantation, the firewood production is increased on
Island B.  When combined with storage, the wood supply lasts for 61 years
before the supply  runs out.  The "reserve" was protected for more than 3
decades longer than island A.

By investing time and effort in research, the people of island C were able
to find new ways to increase volume production per hectare.  As a result,
the "reserve" was protected for 244 years.  


	
---------------------------------

Comment.

The purpose of this word problem is to illustrate the "yin-yang" aspects
associated with tree monocultures and native woodlands.  A few people
believe that a dualistic philosophy is superior to the "all or none"
philosophies touted by others.  The question I think is important is: how
much land do we want to devote to each of the major cover types (wilderness,
tree farms, cities, farm crops, pasture land, wetlands, native forests,
roads, etc.)?  To me, this seems more relevant than debating the pros and
cons of individual management regimes.     



---------------------------------

Although the three islands are fictitious, real islands (countries) exist to
illustrate each management type.
   

David South
School of Forestry
Auburn University, AL  36849-5418

dsouth@forestry.auburn.edu

205-844-1022
205-844-1084 (FAX)






[Metla] [Main Index] [Thread Index]

Mail converted by MHonArc 1.1.0