My thanks to all those who responded to my request for information works on
modelling landuse dynamics in sub_Saharan Africa. I received several
interesting leads among which are the following:
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 1994 09:10 +0100 (MET)
From: TROPENBOS@iac.agro.nl
Subject: Re: Predicting land use land cover dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa.
To: msjaiteh@mtu.EDU
Dear Malanding Jaiteh,
Although not in the sub-saharan zone, I do know of some research in
Kalimantan and Columbia. Both studies are carried out by the International
Institute for Aerospace Survey and Earth Sciences (ITC) in Enschede, the
Netherlands.
The project in Kalimantan has already resulted in a (computer) model that
predict places where deforestation will take place given the demographic
situation.
I have made an attempt to find the people responsible for these studies
but I am not sure whether I have succeeded. My best guess is you contact
Dr Y.A. Hussin at the ITC. He held an lecture on ITC activities in the
beginning of March, and I suppose he knows what is going on....
His e-mail adress is HUSSIN@ITC.NL (real adress is P.O.Box 6, 7500 AA
Enschede,
the Netherlands.
Phone: +31 53 874444)
I hope this is the kind of information you were looking for. I f any
problems
arise in contacting Y.A. Hussin, please let me know...
Cheers,
Barend van Gemerden
Tropenbos Foundation
Wageningen - the Netherlandas
Tropenbos@iac.agro.nl
To: msjaiteh@mtu.edu (Malanding Jaiteh)
From: Erkki Viitanen <EKKU@wider.unu.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 1994 09:10:35 +0200
Subject: Re: Predicting land use land cover dynamics in sub-Saharan Afri
I am at the moment writing an article myself on "Geography of Tropical
Deforestation" in which I concentrate on the land use models. My
research area, however, covers all tropical countries (90) included in the
Forest resources assesment 1990 by FAO. I will look up some exact
references for you in my field which is geography.
In general, you should check the works of Torsten Haegerstrand on
modelling the spatial distribution mechanisms. Although majority of his
work was done in the 50s and 60s there are still a lot of up to date
mathematical ideas applicaple in the land use problematics.
I will be in touch as soon as I have gathered more precise information
on the subject.
Erkki Viitanen
The United Nations University
World Institute for Development Economics Research
(UNU/WIDER)
P.S. I hope to receive information from you too.
Date: Mon, 21 Mar 94 15:37:22 PST
To: msjaiteh@mtu.edu
From: ralph@carbon.cor2.epa.gov
Malanding;
We are interested here in the methodology of modeling land-use if not in
the area where you are working. I am sure you are aware of most of the
following groups, but I present them just in case you are not familiar with
one or two of them. The groups I am familiar with working in the area are:
Dr. Charles Hall
State University of New York
His GEOMOD program, which estimates land use pattern relationships with
predicted drivers (topography, rainfall, and other static drivers as
opposed to dynamic drivers like population) within a GIS, has been applied
in humid portions of Africa and southeast Asia to predict land-use patterns
(not rates). How it might perform in sub-Saharan Africa would be
interesting and would be largely a function of what drivers you chose.
Dr. Sandra Brown
US-EPA
She (along with FAO, Oak Ridge, Woods Hole, etc.) has been working with
population, topography, rainfall, etc. drivers to model land-use change in
all of the tropics.
Dr. Virginia Dale
Oak Ridge
Similar work
Dr. Rick Leemans
Netherlands
He is working with the IMAGE 2.0 model on the global scale (very coarse)
but this is the best model I am aware of which incorporates population,
climate, technology, education, resource availability, etc..
Unfortunately, they are not willing (yet) to work at any scale finer than
the continent level (the globe is modeled as 13 regions), but the model
structure may be useful. They can also incorporate global climate change
scenarios.
We are interested in modeling land-use change patterns and rates in Latin
America (in the near term Mexico and Brazil). Any suggestions you may have
towards that end would be welcome.
Ralph H Riley ralph@heart.cor.epa.gov
Forest Scientist tel: 503-754-4304
Environmental Reseach Laboratory fax: 503-754-4338
200 SW 35th St
Corvallis, OR 97333
malanding jaiteh
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