Economic fluctuations in the European export markets are more directly reflected in the quantities demanded than in the prices of the Finnish roundwood market. The tested models indicate that the demand predictions of final products were useful in forecasting Finnish exports, which in turn helped to forecast short-term cyclical demand for roundwood in Finland. Instead, when stumpage price forecasts are created, domestic factors affecting supply are also important. These results were obtained from studies, which analysed the connections between the export markets of forest industry products and the domestic wood markets. The aim was to develop tools that improve Metla’s ability to provide short-term analyses and predictions of market development. The results provided better tools for market analyses and a stronger theoretical basis for Metla’s economic surveys.
Additional information: http://www.metla.fi/hanke/3338/index-en.htm, http://www.metla.fi/hanke/3414/index-en.htm and www.metla.fi/julkaisut/suhdannekatsaus/index-en.htm
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