Annual Report 2005 - Forest-based entrepreneurship and forest environment models and databanks

Metla has developed models for predicting probabilities of forest damage caused by various factors. The calculated damage probability is represented as the risk of damage occurring in a specific type of stand and how the damage risk concerns different kinds of trees. The predicted probabilities can also be used to assess the impact of forest management practices on the damage risk. A forest damage risk prediction model can be integrated into different systems of forest management planning.

All damage causes monitored during the Eighth National Forest Inventory (NFI 8) conducted in 1986-94 were used as material in the study. The significance of the damage to forest development depends on the cause, amount and level of the damage, and also the way the damage affects the tree. Damage can reduce height growth, deteriorate timber quality or eventually, kill the tree.

The study group created cause-specific prediction models for the probability of stand and tree damage incidents. First, the stand-level models predict the probability of forest damage as a function of growth site and tree-specific parameters. At the second phase, tree-level models predict the probability of damages caused to trees, depending on the incidence of forest damage and tree characteristics. At stand level the probability can be interpreted as the proportion of the total forest area affected by damage. At tree-level the probability can be thought of as the proportion of trees affected by damage.

Additional information: www.metla.fi/hanke/3283/index-en.htm

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Updated:	14.09.2006 / SKon	Metla : Annual Report : Annual Report 2005

Risk models of forest damage for forest management planning