Geospatial modelling of the effect of climate change on vegetation

Climate change is pushing the forest zone further to the North

Metla participated in two projects that involved research into the effects of climate change on the natural habitat of North-West Russia. These two projects, the EU-funded TUNDRA (TUNdra Degradation in the Russian Arctic) and ARCTICA (Arctic feedbacks to global warming: a circumpolar assessment) funded by the Academy of Finland, focused on the impact of global change on the Usa river catchment basin in Komi, on the transition zone between boreal forests and tundra.

A GIS database was compiled of the vegetation and landscape units, and it was linked to climatic spatial information data. The data was then used to create the models of current vegetation. The models were used to calculate an occurrence area for the forest zone that would be possible under the predicted climate change. An average July temperature increase as little as 1°C would mean that the forest zone would advance 70 km further north than today.

Additional information on the project: www.metla.fi/hanke/3227/index-en.htm